Kyle The Better-Than-Marginal: The Growing Legend of Neckbeard

Don't let the title fool you. This piece isn't just about Kyle Orton. In fact, you could say it is 90% inspired by Josh McDaniels. After all, he is the main reason behind the remarkable play of the Denver Broncos this season. It's not necessarily the success, Denver has been a winning organization for years now, but it is the way they are winning. With a dominant defense and a balanced offensive attack that commits few errors. McDaniels and D-coordinator Mike Nolan have instilled a grit that has been lacking since the days of the Orange Crush.

Nolan, the architect of the Baltimore D that was feared for so many years, arrived along with an army of NFL veterans on the defensive side. Much like the defense of McDaniels' former team, every player was handpicked for a specific role. Some Bronco veterans have shifted roles to better fit in with Nolan's defense of choice, the 3-4. Former DT Elvis Dumervil switched to OLB and has thrived, tallying 10 sacks through 7 games, good enough for second in the league. Dumervil has been the Broncos' best pass rusher since 2006 (his rookie season) but his best year was 2007 where he had 12.5 sacks and 34 total tackles. Dumervil has 24 tackles in the first 7 games.

Consider the following stats:

• The Broncos are 1st in total D this year, giving up 266.7 yards per game. Denver was 29th last season, allowing 374.6 yards per game.
• Nolan's 3-4 defense is 6th in the NFL in pass defense and 3rd in rush defense. Denver finished 2008 as the 26th ranked pass defense and the 27th ranked rush defense.
• Denver has given up 13.7 points per game, good enough for 2nd in the league this season. Last season they finished at 30th in the league, having given up 28 points per game.
• Denver has a turnover differential of +6, good enough for 6th in the league. Last season, they finished tied for dead last at -17.
• Denver has thrown 1 INT. In contrast, Detroit's quarterbacks have thrown 16. Surprisingly, Brett Favre's Vikings are second in the league, having only thrown 3 INTs.
  

The offense has contributed consistency. The 2008 Broncos were prolific on offense but short drives and turnovers often put the defense in situations they couldn't dig out of. With Orton, Denver has traded gaudy numbers for dependability. Through 7 games, Orton has thrown 1 interception, an end of the half hail mary that was picked off by Randy Moss of all people (Moss has as many INTs this season as Bronco TE Tony Scheffler). He has shown competence while running McDaniels' offense as well as the ability to know when to make a throw and when to throw the ball away. Against New England, he showed that he has the ability to sustain a game winning drive, when he picked the Pats D apart with precision throws and quality decision making. Rookie RB Knowshon Moreno and former Philly backup, Correll Buckhalter have run the ball with tenacity and have shown the ability to be decisive when hitting holes, gaining yards on every rush. Many questioned McDaniels' choice to draft a RB when he already had a gaggle of them on his squad (with Peyton Hillis returning and the signing of Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arrington, and LaMont Jordan) but Moreno has cemented himself as one half of a dynamic running duo. The two have melded into one runner, capable of playing an entire game at 100%, wearing down opposing defenses after 3 quarters of constant pounding.

At 6-1, Denver looks good heading into their Week 9 game against Pittsburgh tonight. It's always a battle against the Steelers; Denver's heart will be tested after last week's loss to Baltimore. We'll know after tonight whether Denver truly belongs amongst the elite of the NFL. San Diego has recovered from their early season woes and if Denver loses, the Chargers will only be a game back.

I leave you with an audio clip of the pregame speech given by Brian Dawkins prior to Denver's first game against the Bengals. If you're looking for a catalyst behind Denver's defensive improvement, look no further.



-PSon

The People vs. Jay Cutler

I'm going to preface this by saying I loved Jay Cutler. I've given him the benefit of the doubt every time he was questioned. In fact I have written many fawning posts on this blog, professing my undying support. That all ended the minute he locked himself in his room and refused to open the door. In addition, I have many friends who are Bears fans and I have not ceased to mock them over the years for the historic Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton QB tandem.


The championship seasons of 97 and 98 are long gone and the Broncos have struggled since then with just 1 playoff win. That win came during the Jake Plummer led (his last full season as starter) 2005 campaign where the Broncos amassed a stellar 13-3 regular season record. They upended New England in their first game and lost handily to the eventual champion Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC championship game. Plummer was benched the following year during a somewhat disappointing season. The benching was controversial at the time given the fact that Jay Cutler was only a rookie and the Broncos were still in playoff contention. They were in the hunt for the playoffs all the way up to their last game against the pitiful San Francisco 49ers. The Broncos embarrassingly lost that game in OT when all they needed was a tie or win to secure a playoff spot. Of course Cutler was just a rookie so while Denver fans were upset, the future looked bright and Cutler's youth served to shield him from criticism.

Cutler's first full season as Denver's starter resulted in a 7-9 finish, the first time since 01-02 that the Broncos missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons and the first time since 99 (the year after Elway left) they finished the season with a sub .500 record. Last season was Cutler second as the full time starter. He put up great numbers with a slew of great wide receivers, a couple of good tight ends, and a dominant offensive line led by rookie Ryan Clady.

The injury troubles for the Broncos were widely reported. At one point in the season they started 8 rookies on O and D. They lost 7 running backs to season ending injuries which might lead you to believe that Cutler was forced to put up big numbers without any help from his running backs. Bronco running backs rushed for 1862 yards last year. In contrast, Chicago running backs gained 1673 yards on the ground. When you add receptions (by running backs), the total yards gained by running backs is nearly identical for both teams (2275 to 2276). Looks like Orton and Cutler received the same help from their backfield.

The Cutler situation has been a nightmare for Bronco fans ever since the day Mike Shanahan was fired. Cutler was very close with Shanahan and let it be known that he was not happy with not being consulted about the situation. He wanted the rest of the offensive coaching staff held intact. Then McDaniels was hired and he brought his own coaching staff with him, surrounding himself with people he thought he could work with and people he knew would excel at running his system. Cutler and McDaniels clashed right from the outset. Mike Shanahan was a great offensive coach who allowed Cutler to put up big numbers and surrounded him with weapons to do it. He's always been good at that. Unfortunately the same could not be said about the Broncos defense, evidenced by the coaching carousel of defensive coordinators over the past 10 years. The defensive problem was compounded by poor drafting as well as trades and acquisitions that netted washed up veterans; either guys who excelled in good situations with other teams or guys Shanahan thought he could turn into successful players. Perhaps the poor defense was Cutler's ultimate trump card. He was free to sling the ball around the field to receivers who could make plays; the losses were placed solely at the feet of the defense because who could argue with the numbers.

Ultimately it was Cutler's sense of entitlement that was his undoing in Denver. Cutler never reached the playoffs as starter for the Broncos, even when it was handed to him in 2007. Cutler finished his Broncos career with a losing record. Cutler has a reputation around the league for being a front-runner and whiner. He played poorly against the Broncos' biggest rivals, especially the San Diego Chargers who have treated Mile High Stadium as home-sweet-home the last few years. There were teams that were considered big players in the Cutler sweepstakes who had stars speak out AGAINST Cutler, that's how little respect he holds in some corners of the NFL. Orton may not be the most physically gifted QB but his Chicago teammates respected him and his attitude is reminiscent of Jake Plummer's (nevermind Plummer's faults). When Plummer was benched in favor of Cutler, instead of pouting he did what he could to help Cutler succeed. Orton played to his strengths in Chicago and we know that McDaniels has a history of succeeding with QBs who play within the system.

The dominance of Chicago's defense is well known, Cutler has that going for him. However his success rides on the shoulders of sub-par receivers, a sub-par offensive line, a good tight end, and a good young running back. A large chunk of the Bears' receiving yards went to their running backs last year as their offensive line didn't give Orton much time to look downfield. Maybe that's a good thing as his receivers were likely covered and overmatched. Will Cutler be ok with throwing screen passes and check downs all day or will he force the ball into bad matchups and covered receivers (a problem he had in Denver)? Orton was sacked 27 times last season. Denver's O line held opposing defenses to 11 sacks. If the Bears choose to change their offense to suit Cutler, will they provide enough protection to give him time to look downfield? In case he doesn't know, Lovie Smith is not an offensive mastermind. What will Cutler do after his first poor outing in Soldier's Field? If he thinks Denver is tough, wait until the boos are raining down during a cold game in Chicago.

Josh McDaniels has repeatedly said that the Broncos have a lot of issues they need to take care of. A lot of changes were needed to make Denver a Super Bowl contender. Nevermind being one win away from making the playoffs, had they made the playoffs last year they would have been embarrassed by Indianapolis. In Denver, it's not enough to just make the playoffs and it's certainly not enough to miss them. You can't win the Super Bowl every year but there is a difference between not winning it and not having a chance to win it. A good franchise puts themselves in the hunt every year. In order to do that, change is needed. Denver has signed many free agents this offseason, filling holes at cornerback, safety, defensive line, and running back. Players who haven't contributed have been released. New coaches were hired, there are no longer single points of failure. Mike Nolan was hired as the defensive coordinator and will bring in a new 3-4 defense, replacing the antiquated one of Shanahan's tenure. The Cutler trade has given the Broncos more room to work. They received a replacement QB as well as three first-day picks (including 2 first rounders). The Broncos now have 2 first round picks this year that they can use to fill holes on defense. In contrast, New England received only a second round pick for Matt Cassel earlier this year. Make no mistake, the Bears gave up a lot for Cutler. There is a lot of pressure for him to succeed and he has not dealt with that so well in the past.

Key points regarding the Cutler trade:

• The Broncos' offense, while prolific, was extremely inefficient last year. They were ranked 2nd in yards per game yet they were 16th in points per game (at 23.1).
• Chicago's offense was 26th in yards per game and 14th in points per game (at 23.4).
• Cutler finished the season with 4526 yards, 25 TDs, 18 INTs, 38.5 pass attempts per game, and a QB rating of 86.
• Orton finished with 2972 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, 31 pass attempts per game, and a QB rating of 79.6.
• Cutler was sacked 11 times and fumbled 4 times.
• Orton was sacked 27 times and fumbled 3 times.
• Cutler's percentage of TDs per attempts was 4.1, Orton's was 3.9.
• Cutler's percentage of INTs per attempts was 2.9, Orton's was 2.6.
• Denver scored 80% of the times they were in the red zone (inside the 20 yard line). They scored TDs on 54.5% of their trips.
• Chicago scored 90% of the time and scored TDs on 56% of their trips to the red zone.
  

Cutler is and will always be a gunslinger. The future of the Bears rides on whether they can surround him with enough talent to make up for poor decision making. The numbers say that Orton has the tools to succeed in the right system. He won't put up the same passing numbers but by minimizing turnovers and managing the game, he won't have to. I will take an efficient offense over a prolific one any day. The Broncos picked up a capable quarterback and 3 good picks for a quarterback that did not want to be here. Sometimes you get what you ask for.

Here's to hoping Denver does not draft a QB in the 1st round. Draft DEFENSE.

-PSon

It's Good To Be King

The Broncos have hired a new coach, and that man is Josh McDaniels, former Patriots OC. I haven't had time to discuss my thoughts on the Shanny firing but I do wish him well. He's a great coach and offensive mind, there's no doubt that he will catch on somewhere else and achieve success. The Broncos have been stuck in a rut for years where they were good enough to barely make or barely miss the playoffs. A new direction was needed and I think this move will make the Broncos strong contenders in the next couple of years. I don't think we can expect huge things from the Broncos next year (not to say they can't succeed quickly) but this should be a solid team in 3-4 years.

It is currently being reported by a very trustworthy Broncos source that Mike Nolan will be Josh McDaniels' D coordinator. I couldn't be happier with this decision as Nolan has been with the Broncos in the past and has attained a great amount of success in turning Baltimore into a defensive powerhouse. He was fired as San Francisco's coach last year but for a couple of years he managed to pluck them from the dregs of the NFC where at one point they were thought to be a team that was a couple of years away. The Broncos will no doubt take a long look at their defensive personel as it has been said that Nolan will bring in a 3-4 defense. Denver's D line has been porous of late so change is iminent. As for free agents, if the Broncos bring in Albert Haynesworth I will be extremely happy, if they bring in Nnamdi Asomugha, I will shed tears.